{
 "note": "Fundamentals-prior probe: the Gaussian variant with and without Ellis's prior on the PM party's swing, forecasting 2023 eight weeks out with the polls available then. The prior is excluded from the ensemble.",
 "cases": {
  "fund": {
   "target": 2023,
   "horizon_weeks": 8,
   "variant": "fund",
   "cutoff": "2023-08-19",
   "n_polls": 358,
   "crps_pp": 2.612123197631313,
   "mae_pp": 3.8544409126894816,
   "coverage_90": 0.8571428571428571,
   "coverage_50": 0.2857142857142857,
   "forecast_mean": {
    "National": 0.30616673827171326,
    "Labour": 0.3806758224964142,
    "Green": 0.08656290918588638,
    "ACT": 0.11237248033285141,
    "NZ First": 0.03963661566376686,
    "Te Pāti Māori": 0.03277872875332832,
    "TOP": 0.017249928787350655,
    "Other": 0.024556521326303482
   },
   "outcome": {
    "National": 0.3808,
    "Labour": 0.2692,
    "Green": 0.1161,
    "ACT": 0.0864,
    "NZ First": 0.0609,
    "Te Pāti Māori": 0.0308,
    "TOP": 0.0222,
    "Other": 0.03359999999999996
   },
   "diagnostics": {
    "n_divergent": 0,
    "seconds": 401.1,
    "mean_num_steps": 255.0,
    "max_rhat": 1.013909701562654,
    "min_ess_bulk": 186.40527635339657,
    "n_params_summarised": 164
   }
  },
  "gauss": {
   "target": 2023,
   "horizon_weeks": 8,
   "variant": "gauss",
   "cutoff": "2023-08-19",
   "n_polls": 358,
   "crps_pp": 1.4251832702077032,
   "mae_pp": 2.354635313238417,
   "coverage_90": 1.0,
   "coverage_50": 0.42857142857142855,
   "forecast_mean": {
    "National": 0.33457842469215393,
    "Labour": 0.30584385991096497,
    "Green": 0.0978187844157219,
    "ACT": 0.12973225116729736,
    "NZ First": 0.04698773846030235,
    "Te Pāti Māori": 0.035349711775779724,
    "TOP": 0.020316343754529953,
    "Other": 0.029372835531830788
   },
   "outcome": {
    "National": 0.3808,
    "Labour": 0.2692,
    "Green": 0.1161,
    "ACT": 0.0864,
    "NZ First": 0.0609,
    "Te Pāti Māori": 0.0308,
    "TOP": 0.0222,
    "Other": 0.03359999999999996
   },
   "diagnostics": {
    "n_divergent": 0,
    "seconds": 401.9,
    "mean_num_steps": 255.0,
    "max_rhat": 1.0156096525759233,
    "min_ess_bulk": 179.91930997196687,
    "n_params_summarised": 164
   }
  }
 }
}